Prospective study of higher education in Medellín

Abstract

Higher education in Medellín operates within a complex environment characterized by a strong academic track record, technological capabilities, and rapid socioeconomic transformations. The study aims to analyze structural change dynamics and power relations among local stakeholders, and to project scenarios for the year 2035 to inform strategic decision-making within the local education system. Regarding methodology, a mixed-methods foresight approach was applied across three phases: i) strategic monitoring to identify ten drivers of change; ii) structural analysis using the cross-impact matrix (MICMAC) and actor-game analysis (MACTOR); and iii) construction of future scenarios based on Peter Schwartz’s uncertainty axes and Michel Godet’s toolkit. Results from the MICMAC analysis positioned factors such as Digital Transformation (Transdigi), Institutional Innovation (InnoInsnMo), Quality and Relevance (ForCalPert), and University-Industry-Government Articulation (ArtiEdSInn) within the "key zone." Four plausible scenarios were identified, prioritizing the "Smart and Inclusive Higher Education" scenario, which integrates emerging technologies with an equitable innovation ecosystem. In conclusion, the system's transformation depends not solely on technological adoption, but on consolidating long-term collaborative governance that transcends the discontinuities of administrative cycles.